Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.670381 3.656741 5.060706 7.276709 1.082856e+01 1.657271e+01 27.201360
2025-02-16 1.781596 2.815985 4.600766 8.165597 1.586961e+01 3.407850e+01 90.861333
2025-02-23 1.183929 2.077758 3.862657 8.188660 2.045359e+01 6.347321e+01 326.372967
2025-03-02 0.801248 1.522902 3.139657 7.749589 2.452782e+01 1.139459e+02 1521.287605
2025-03-09 0.618904 1.276448 2.939819 8.633079 3.686598e+01 3.163428e+02 47399.859800
2025-03-16 0.484353 1.070573 2.719561 9.409808 5.515680e+01 1.083364e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.394992 0.931794 2.605053 10.691988 9.094840e+01 7.016261e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.325068 0.811213 2.471142 11.932824 1.521057e+02 1.541261e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.256527 0.663379 2.136921 11.532693 2.006825e+02 3.571441e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.202557 0.537532 1.804587 10.605035 2.396290e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.173038 0.477114 1.704906 11.452059 4.091414e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.154465 0.445073 1.712015 13.578912 9.527840e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.138903 0.419595 1.750905 16.881520 3.252146e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.121012 0.377834 1.671554 18.696359 9.970072e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102290 0.325326 1.487854 18.167183 2.082600e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.085784 0.275793 1.286303 16.561272 3.291747e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.076818 0.253811 1.244855 18.441316 2.709612e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068778 0.232640 1.192253 20.071292 1.056991e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062753 0.217925 1.174265 23.027672 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057248 0.203447 1.146371 25.924087 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050465 0.180759 1.034360 24.607163 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044192 0.158684 0.912472 22.061240 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040652 0.148517 0.883752 23.994545 NaN NaN NaN